The ceasefire in Iran, announced on Wednesday morning and looking fragile within 24 hours, has seen the oil price drop below US$100 a barrel but fuel supply uncertainty is set to continue.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese yesterday secured “shiploads of fuel” to bring more supply into Australia through agreements with Ampol and Viva Energy.

The number of petrol stations around the country without fuel is falling but there were still more than 200 yesterday without diesel and dozens without unleaded petrol.

Miners have reported mixed outlooks concerning fuel supply.

Junior iron ore miner Fenix Resources last week flagged disruptions resulting from both Tropical Cyclone Narelle and a lack of fuel supply availability from its contracted diesel suppliers. However it did not intend to withdraw or amend FY26 guidance “at this time”.

Gold producer Greatland Resources said this week its Telfer operation was not currently impacted by diesel supply disruptions, as its fuel was supplied directly by a global oil major on a long-term contract. It also pointed out its processing plant was powered by natural gas from WA production.

Gold miner Capricorn Metals said it wasn’t currently impacted by diesel supply issues but “this remains a key focus and a material risk for the Australian mining industry”.

Ramelius Resources said its Mt Magnet operations weren’t currently impacted, thanks to a long-term contract with a global oil major, however it noted its FY cost guidance had been based on a diesel price (net of fuel tax credits) assumption of A$0.95/L but the current price was about A$2.10/L which would result in an update on cost guidance.

Analysts have pointed out Australia needs a long-term plan, not focused on fuel but on energy security.

Adjunct Professor Ray Wills from the University of Western Australia and Professor Peter Newman from Curtin University this week said the Albanese government’s three-page fuel plan was light on detail and had focused on the immediate problem.

“The first step is to change our thinking,” they wrote.

“Rather than focus on managing our dependence on oil, we need to think about how to end it.”

They said a credible fuel strategy must ensure the provision of short-term liquid fuel stocks but should also include a clear timeline towards electrification, accelerate use of Australian-produced biofuels, renewables and energy storage, and plan for the orderly decline of oil.

“In response to global uncertainty, the Albanese government has effectively promised a return to normal in its focus on economic resilience, productivity and cost of living pressures,” they said.

“That’s risky, given we don’t know when – or if – normal will ever return.

“If Australia is to be secure amid uncertainty, leaders cannot double down on the highly vulnerable supply chains which put us in this position.

“Real fuel security means shifting away from foreign fuels as quickly as possible.”