China is embarking on its 15th five-year plan, so what does this mean for the world’s second-largest economy and its suppliers?

The latest plan was drafted last year and due to be adopted at the annual parliamentary gathering that’s set to wrap up this week.

Alongside the new plan, Beijing has slightly reduced its growth target to a widely expected 4.5%-5% for 2026.

However the new five-year cycle begins on solid ground, according to state-owned media, noting the 14^th plan ended with China’s economy surpassing 140 trillion yuan (about US$20 trillion) in 2025.

The US Supreme Court’s decision to knock back some of US president Donald Trump’s tariffs has eased some of the pressure facing China.

Meanwhile the escalating US-Iran war is adding new concerns. China’s plan was prepared before the crucial trade route, the Strait of Hormuz, was closed.

China’s decision-makers will see the disruption to oil and gas shipments through the Strait as a validation of their emphasis on energy security and reducing reliance on oil and gas imports, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said.

The 15^th plan signals strong support for scaling up clean energy and emerging low-carbon industries, the CREA said, but continues caution when it comes to setting firm constraints on fossil fuel consumption and emission growth. 

In terms of commodities, China has pledged to maintain its lead in the rare earths industry, push for more domestic exploration and mining, plus tackle overcapacity in heavy industry like steel and copper smelting, Reuters reported.

More broadly, Project Blue – which provides market intelligence on critical material supply chains – said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was exposing a concentration risk for the metals sector in the form of sulphur.

It said roughly half of all globally-traded sulphur moved via the strait, and a lack of sulphur could impact hydrometallurgical operations producing nickel, copper, and cobalt in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

“The world is building its energy transition strategy on the assumption of reliable nickel, copper, and cobalt supply from Indonesia and the DRC,” Project Blue said, adding a shortage could lead to constrained production, reduced margins and potentially higher prices.

Returning to China, its 15^th five-year plan will be a bet on state capacity: that discipline, coordination and diffusion can offset demographic drag and external pressures, according to a recent paper from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

“Beijing’s hope is China can limit its own external vulnerabilities while remaining indispensable to the rest of the world – and in doing so strengthen its ability to shape the next five years of global trade, tech and diplomatic norms,” the paper said.

Dynamic dual aims in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.