In March 2025, the Australian stock market exhibited a complex performance, shaped by sector-specific dynamics, weather events and significant global economic developments. The on-off-on imposition of new US tariffs introduced additional variables, influencing investor sentiment and market outcomes.
The S&P/ASX 200 index experienced fluctuations throughout the month, reflecting the interplay of domestic and international factors. The key index was off 4% during March and is now off 8.5% since it peaked on Valentine’s Day at 8,555 points.
At the macro level, utilities, consumer staples and healthcare fared best, with IT, energy and discretionary retail faring the worst.
The announcement of US tariffs had a pronounced effect on market volatility, as concerns over a potential trade war led to cautious investor behaviour. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) acknowledged these risks, noting that such uncertainties could dampen global business and consumer spending, increase borrowing costs for firms, and destabilise financial markets. The RBA kept its powder dry this week on interest rates as it waits to see the impact of the US tariffs.
Of the positive performers during the month, gold companies fared particularly well as the yellow metal continued to set new records. Spartan Resources was up 45% following an agreed merger with Ramelius, whilst Gold Road Resources kicked up following news that Gold Fields wants to get its hands on the other 50% of Gruyere that it doesn’t own.
For companies that have or are contemplating a US presence, Austal showed the way with the Australian ship maker, operating its large Alabama facility, surging 35% for the first quarter as it looks to capitalise on its US exposure.
On the negative side, Nickel Industries came back to earth with its shares shedding 18% following a large block trade and indications out of Indonesia that it was looking to curb runaway nickel production, which has pushed the country into the number one position over the past few years.
Star Entertainment Group is demonstrating that its not just Donald Trump that can lose money running a casino, with investors having a nervous wait to see if a white knight can be secured to keep the lights on.
Overall, the broader economic landscape was significantly influenced by the US administration’s tariffs, with on and then off again tariffs against Canada and Mexico leading to concerns about what could be next for other global trading partners.
On Thursday, the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on US imports from the rest of the world turned markets on their head. Trump’s decision to impose a minimum 10% tariff on all imports, including those from Australia, sent markets into a freefall.
Australian PM Anthony Albanese criticised the move, stating it was “not the act of a friend,” but ruled out reciprocal tariffs, emphasising a commitment to diplomatic negotiations. The RBA warned earlier this week that these tariff policies could threaten global growth, potentially leading to increased market volatility and economic slowdown.
April will be the month where the global community decides how it is going to respond to President Trump’s aggressive trade decisions. Some countries may seek to ‘kiss the ring’ and make a deal to have their tariffs reduced or removed. Others may impose tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs or other barriers to hurt US exporters. Whatever the case, it is expected that global companies and countries will seek to diversify markets and seek trade with less aggressive and more predictable economies.
Looking ahead, the Australian stock market’s trajectory will likely be influenced by ongoing trade negotiations, domestic policy responses, and global economic conditions. It appears that there will be pretty extreme volatility as the markets digest and try to work their way through these uncertain times.
