September 2025 was a month of contrast for the ASX resources sector. The S&P/ASX 200 Index experienced a modest decline of approximately 0.8%, while the Materials (XMJ) Index demonstrated resilience, outperforming the broader market. Both USD and AUD gold prices continued their upward trajectory, driven by safe-haven demand and macroeconomic uncertainties to reach new highs of around $3,800 and $5,800 respectively.

Gold dominated investor attention through September, with steady gains attracting both institutional and retail buyers seeking refuge from macroeconomic jitters and central bank policy uncertainty. ASX-listed gold producers were obvious beneficiaries from this environment, seeing their share prices supported by stronger bullion markets and growing inflows into gold-focused ETFs. However, the developers and explorers were also getting in on plenty of the action.

The late-month surge in copper added another layer of intrigue for resource investors, with the Grasberg mine disruption reminding the market that supply shocks can still rattle global commodity balances. While copper had largely traded in a range for most of the month, the sudden operational pause at one of the world’s largest mines unsurprisingly saw the copper price rally around 4% on the news and led to a positive impact for producers like Sandfire, which closed up 7.5% on the day and has trended higher since.

The renewed optimism extended to the junior end of the market, where exploration companies and smaller producers found a more receptive investor base. Hedley Widdup from Lion Selection Group highlighted that their proprietary Mining Cycle Clock had now moved towards the early stages of the boom phase, signalling that the sector is entering a period of increased activity and liquidity. Investors appeared to be listening with deals, IPOs, and capital raisings all picking up.

This combination of rising commodity prices, increased deal flow, and improving market sentiment created a sense of cautious optimism, with participants eager to re-engage after a quieter period.

Overall, September painted a picture of the resources sector regaining momentum, driven by gold’s safe-haven allure, the late-month copper shock, and the buoyant junior market. While geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties linger, the ASX resources sector showed that it can still command attention, deliver opportunities for those positioned strategically, and hint at the beginnings of a new cyclical upswing.

Investors long the market throughout the month were likely rewarded, particularly if overweight gold. Clear signals from commodity markets and encouraging signs from corporate activity suggests that the sector may be entering a more active and prosperous phase as we head into the final quarter of 2025. However, as this rising tide lifts all boats, investors will keep at least one eye on whether the current momentum can continue. All the way into a Christmas rally would be nice but that is not yet even near a certainty.