Antimony has quietly emerged as a critical commodity, coming out of nowhere to capture the attention of savvy investors. This lustrous, silvery-grey metalloid, often overshadowed by more glamorous metals, is now at the forefront of global economic and geopolitical discussions. But what makes antimony so special, and why should investors consider adding it to their portfolios?
Antimony’s history is as intriguing as the metal itself. Right from Biblical times (and up until the 1970’s), it was prescribed as a medicine for parasitic gut issues. Taking an antinomy pill would irritate the intestines to the point where everything was evacuated. Whilst it got rid of the parasites, it also seemed to do a lot of damage along the way that often led to death (including to Mozart, apparently).
On the supply front, China has historically dominated the global production of antimony, accounting for approximately 48% of the world’s supply. However, recent geopolitical tensions and China’s strategic export restrictions have significantly impacted the global supply chain. These restrictions, aimed at safeguarding national security and interests, have led to a tightening of supply, driving up prices and creating a ripple effect across various industries.
In terms of the size of the antinomy market (83,000 tonnes per annum), consider that the largest single antimony mine is a gold-antinomy mine in Russia that has a capacity of only 23,000 tonnes per annum, however it has produced at a fraction of that in recent years.
The demand for antimony is driven by its diverse applications. Traditionally used in flame retardants and lead-acid batteries, antimony’s role has expanded into high-tech and defence products, including semiconductors and superhard materials. The clean energy transition has further amplified its importance, with antimony playing a crucial role in large-scale renewable energy storage solutions. As industries continue to innovate and seek sustainable solutions, the demand for antimony is expected to rise, further straining the already tight supply.
The past year has seen significant volatility in antimony prices. In early 2023, prices were relatively stable, but the announcement of China’s export restrictions in mid-2023 triggered a sharp increase. By May 2024, antimony prices had reached record highs, with the Shanghai Metals Exchange reporting a 54% increase to US$17,588 per metric tonne. European prices followed suit, climbing over 75% to US$22,700 per tonne by June 2024.
This price surge can be attributed to several factors, including the tightening supply, increased demand from the renewable energy sector, and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors have been closely monitoring these trends, as the price movements reflect broader economic and geopolitical shifts.
This price surge can be attributed to several factors, including the tightening supply, increased demand from the renewable energy sector, and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors have been closely monitoring these trends, as the price movements reflect broader economic and geopolitical shifts.
For Australian explorers, the new interest has come as a bit of a surprise. While there are a number of gold, silver and copper projects that contain antinomy, most have never considered it economic as it often requires flotation, roasting or other metallurgical processes to extract.
As the world transitions towards a greener and more sustainable future, antimony’s role is set to become even more critical. One of the most promising applications of antimony is in liquid metal batteries, which are becoming more important for large-scale renewable energy storage. These batteries offer a solution to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, by providing a reliable means of storing excess energy for use during periods of low generation.
Moreover, antimony’s use in flame retardants and semiconductors positions it as a key material in the production of high-tech and defence products. While technological advancements continue to drive demand for these products, it is also remembering the overall size of the market and how easy it will be for one large producer to have a material impact on pricing.
China remains the largest producer of antimony, with significant deposits and production capabilities. However, other countries are also notable players in the market. Russia and Tajikistan are the second and third largest producers, respectively, contributing to the global supply. These countries have been ramping up production to meet the growing demand and to capitalise on the high prices.
In addition to these major producers, exploration activities in other regions, such as Australia and Bolivia, are gaining momentum. Companies in these regions are investing in new mining projects to diversify the global supply chain and reduce dependence on Chinese production.
According to market forecasts, the antimony market is expected to reach $2.9 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% from 2022 to 2032.
However, ASX investors need to keep the following in mind:
– The market size is relatively small, with increased production from an existing producer likely to have an outsized impact on pricing.
– Most antinomy production comes as a by-product from other commodities. It is often easier to increase production by changing the ore feed than developing a new operation from scratch.
– As with all resources projects, grade is king. Only the best grade projects stand a chance of getting away in the next few years.
By focusing on quality projects as well as those that are not reliant on antimony to be profitable, there are likely to be opportunities for investors to make gains. Don’t just follow the media driven hype and remember the size of the market when investing in the sector.
White Noise communications is provided a fee for service working with companies which may have exposure to commodities or securities mentioned in these articles. All articles are the opinion of the author and are not endorsed by, or written in collaboration with, our clients.
Photo by Shubham Dhage
