As the curtain closes on 2024, it’s fair to say this year had its share of soaring highs, plunging lows, and even a few WTF moments. For those of us keeping tabs on the ASX, picking winners has been a hard slog, particularly amongst the junior resource companies, whereas index funds and passive investors in yield stocks have done pretty well. Let’s take a look at the year that was 2024.
Taking a look abroad first, the US S&P 500 is up a significant 26.52% for the year at the time of writing, with the looming return to the Oval Office of Trump (and his new pal Elon). Across the Atlantic, the UK’s FTSE 100 has posted a gain of 7.35%, mildly underperforming its European counterparts with the EU STOXX 600 up 8.68% for the year to date. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite is up strongly at 15.87% so far, although trailing its US rivals.
At home, the ASX200 is also up over 15% for the past year and although there may be a cost of living crisis, savvy stock market investors have done well. With commodities being a mixed bag, gold glittered as the best performer of the year, reaching highs not seen since 2020. Investors flocked to its safe-haven status amid geopolitical instability and inflation concerns. At the other end of the spectrum, nickel and lithium had what could kindly be termed an annus horribilis, with new nickel from Indonesia saturating the market and relatively sluggish EV growth having a drag on the lithium price (and lithium players). Western Australia fared worst on this front, with several operations mothballed across the state during the year.
Whilst niobium seemed to be the mineral ‘out of nowhere’ for 2023, if you told us in January that antimony and gallium would feature amongst 2024’s headlines, we’d have asked what you were drinking. Yet here we are. Whilst most investors don’t have a clue what either are used in, it didn’t stop them piling into a few lucky explorers that started reporting high grades.
On the M&A front, the mood was set in the first half of the year with SQM and Hancock Prospecting snapping up Azure Minerals for a cool $1.7 billion, perhaps easing the pain for Hancock from investing around $300 million into Liontown at $3 a pop only to see the share price slide down to around 60 cents.
The second half of the year saw a flurry of deals announced, which is likely to see the Christmas bonuses for the investment bankers look a little rosier. Pilbara Minerals locked in a scheme deal with Latin Resources to expand into Brazil, while Northern Star Resources’ acquisition of De Grey Mining was a late Q4 headline-grabber, creating a gold behemoth and sparking speculation about more mega-mergers in 2025.
BHP also made a standout move this year following the 2023 acquisition of OZ Minerals with a joint venture with Lundin Mining on TSX-listed Filo Mining, solidifying its copper position in both Australia and the rising Vicuña District in Argentina.
Corporate activity wasn’t the only show in town. It would be remiss not to mention Chris Ellison going from hero to zero over at MinRes after a number of tax issues and not-quite-so-arm’s length deals came to light.
Away from mining, the banks had a great year, generating a return of over 37%, a welcome boost to the nation’s super account balances. Likewise, the tech sector also put in an exceptional performance, with the ASX All Technology index delivering a 50.8% return.
For the crypto traders that have seen weird and wonderful coins minted, explode in value and then come crashing down over the years, this year continued the unpredictable nature of the sector. The benchmark Bitcoin is up nearly 20% for the year, cracking through US$100,000 for the first time recently. On the flipside, the recently launched Hawk Tuah memecoin briefly spiked to $500 million market cap, before near complete collapse – all in a single day – Just another reminder that a fresh new and novel way to lose 95% of your dough is just around the corner.
As we peer into 2025, the outlook has more questions than answers. Will gold retain its lustre in the new year? Will antimony and gallium remain niche stars or fade into obscurity? In Australia, the focus on renewables and critical minerals will likely drive new investment, while corporate consolidation seems far from over. One thing is certain: if 2024 taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected and, above all, keep a sense of humour. Here’s to another year of surprises!
Photo by Brigitte Tohm on Unsplash
