A surging precious metals price has lifted gold to Australia’s second-largest commodity export for the first time in decades.
The gold price doubled between the end of 2024 to more than US$5,300 an ounce earlier this year, before drifting towards this week’s $4,100/oz.
Gold exports are estimated to have risen by 46% to A$68 billion in 2025-26, overtaking coal and LNG and trailing only iron ore’s $117 billion, in the Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ latest Resources and Energy Quarterly.
It’s the first time since the early 1960s, aside from a brief resurgence in 1987, that gold has taken second place, according to the World Gold Council.
“Gold has long been a major part of Australia’s economic story, but its rise to the second-largest resource export underscores just how important the sector remains today,” WGC head of Asia Pacific ex-China and global head of central banks Shaokai Fan said.
While robust demand and higher prices have boosted gold’s place on the export ladder, Fan said Australian gold’s enduring strength was testament to the country’s world-class geology, mining capability, capital markets, skilled workforce and regulatory stability.
Gold export earnings are expected to peak around A$73 billion in 2026-27, remaining second only to iron ore, according to the REQ report out this month.
It’s tipped an average gold price of US$4,862/oz in 2026-27 before easing to $4,000/oz by 2030-31.
Higher than expected gold and energy prices – due to supply disruptions in the Middle East – have led to a sharp upward overall revision of Australia’s resource export earnings.
The report lifted forecast export revenue to $405 billion in 2025-26 and $416 billion in 2026-27, up $22 billion and $42 billion respectively from the December outlook.
Federal resources minister Madeleine King said the forecasts showed Australia’s resources and energy sector continued to deliver strong export earnings that supported jobs, investment and economic growth, despite geopolitical uncertainty.
The artificial intelligence investment boom, global energy transition and efforts by nations to secure supply chains were tipped to underpin demand for Australia’s resources and energy commodities over the report’s 5-year outlook period.
Export revenue was expected to ease to $371 billion in 2030-31.
“Over the next few years, the IMF forecasts solid growth for China and the US, serving as locomotives for the rest of the world,” the report stated.
Iron ore was set to remain Australia’s biggest export over the period, accounting for more than 25% of all exports.
Australia’s low production costs and proximity to the fast-growing Asian region would help Australia compete against rising Brazilian and Guinean iron ore output, the report said.
It also noted many of Australia’s key trading partners, especially Vietnam and India, were expected to grow strongly over the outlook period.
The forecasts were based on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from July, acknowledging it would take some time for trade to return to pre-conflict levels.
